On February 20, 2023, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on Twitter that we need a national divorce in which we separate red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.[1] This sparked an ongoing discussion about national divorce.

Shortly thereafter, The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll March 4-7, 2023 in which they asked about national divorce.[2] Axios/Ipsos conducted a poll which asked about national divorce March 10-13, 2023.[3]

The Homeland Institute conducted a follow-up poll of our own from November 10-27, 2023, which asked 863 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American voters to see if there had been any change since the YouGov and Axios polls and to explore a number of follow up questions.[4]

This first part of our report will cover the issues of democracy, polarization and balkanization. The second part covers national divorce, redrawing stateliness, and the public perception of the different levels of government. It can be found here.

Some of our major findings are that:

• 66.3% of Democrat respondents think that there is a political candidate or party which is too dangerous to be allowed to take power, even if they are lawfully elected.
• Republicans are more comfortable working with, living around, and socializing with people whose political views substantially differ from their own.
• 59% of Republicans and 57.4% of all respondents think that more divides Americans than unites us. This number rose to 72.3% of respondents aged 18-29.[5]
• 11.3% of respondents said that politics at least slightly influenced their decision to move within the last ten years. This jumped to 32.2% of respondents who said that politics would at least slightly influence their decision to probably move within the next five years. More Democrats than Republicans now plan on moving at least in part due to political reasons.
• Additionally, 5.3% of Republicans and 3.6% of Independents reported that a desire for less diversity would probably influence their decision to move in the future.

I. DEMOCRACY IN CRISIS

One of our most interesting findings came from asking “Do you think that there is a political candidate or party which is too dangerous to be allowed to take power, even if they are lawfully elected?” Respondents could answer Yes, Not at this time but probably within ten years, No, and I’m not sure.

Almost two thirds of Democrat respondents at 66.3% replied Yes, as did over a third of Republican respondents at 34.1%, and 46.8% of all respondents overall. 18.4% of all respondents and 22.1% of Republicans replied Not at this time, but probably within ten years. Almost two thirds of all respondents at 65.2% think that there either currently is, or will be within ten years, a candidate too dangerous to take power even if they are lawfully elected.

A critical assumption underpinning democracy is that power can be traded back and forth. But a supermajority of white Americans either no longer believe in that assumption or can conceive of having to abandon it within a decade or less.

A key tactic to popularizing national divorce might be to explain to Republicans that Democrats do not actually believe the democratic values which they profess. Most would find it infuriating to be condescended to about democratic values by people who do not actually believe in them at all.

Given this rampant bad faith, it is unsurprising that the initial denial of fraud in the 2020 election effortlessly slid into a euphemistic narrative about “election fortification.” If it seems incredible that anyone actually believes this, the truth is that they don’t. Democracy to them is just an empty buzzword with no inherent value beyond its utility. It is a weapon for gaslighting their despised political opponents into submission.

Republicans will have to face the stark truth that the other side is playing for keeps, is intellectually dishonest, and is unwilling to lawfully trade power back and forth. If power is no longer traded back and forth, the end result will be permanent classes of the rulers and the ruled, which is antithetical to the democratic assumption that power is reciprocally traded back and forth. Republicans may have to realize that a national divorce is a prerequisite to meaningfully practicing democracy again.

Critics of national divorce sometimes argue that those who support it are seeking to divide the country. But if only a third of Democrats at best actually mean what they say when they talk about “our democracy,” while the other two thirds are fine with disenfranchising their political opponents, the truth is that the country is already irreparably divided. National divorce simply accepts these facts as they are and seeks to find a workable solution in light of them.

II. A DIVIDED COUNTRY?

Despite political polarization, most respondents still reported being comfortable interacting with people whose political views substantially differ from their own.

When we asked respondents “How comfortable are you living around or working with people with political views which substantially differ from your own” 76.7% answered either Very comfortable or Comfortable. 80.6% of Republicans answered that they were comfortable to some degree, compared to 70.8% of Democrats.

When we asked respondents “How comfortable are you socializing with people with political views which substantially differ from your own” 69.9% answered either Very comfortable or Comfortable. 73.9% of Republicans answered that they were comfortable to some degree, compared to 61.4% of Democrats.

The finding that Republicans are more comfortable than Democrats in interacting with people with substantially different political views is interesting given how more Democrats than Republicans perceive their political opponents as thinking that there is fundamentally wrong with them.

First, we asked respondents how much they agreed with the following statement: “There is something fundamentally wrong with my political opponents.”

Then we asked respondents how much they agreed with the following statement: “My political opponents think there’s something fundamentally wrong with people like me.”

51.7% of Democrats and 48.9% of Republicans at least somewhat agree with the statement that something is fundamentally wrong with their political opponents. These numbers jumped to 72.6% of Democrats at least somewhat agreeing with the statement that their political opponents think there is something fundamentally wrong with people like them, compared to 66.4% of Republicans. This suggests that both sides perceive the other side as being more hostile toward them than they really are. However, the Democrat perception of Republican hostility is significantly more incongruent with reality than vice versa.

These findings were buttressed by how Democrats are more likely to believe that their opponents take political positions out of spite. When we asked respondents “Do you believe that your political opponents take positions merely to spite or trigger you, and not because they promote the public good?” 46.9% of Democrats replied Always, Often, or Sometimes, in comparison to 33.1% of Republicans.

We also asked respondents “Do you think that more divides Americans than unites us?”

59.% of Republicans and 57.4% of all respondents think that more divides Americans than unites us. These results were slightly lower but not far off from the Axios-Ipsos poll which asked their respondents to agree or disagree with the statement “Right now, in America, there is more that divides us than unites us” in which 26% strongly agreed and 38% somewhat agreed, with a total of at least 64% at least somewhat agreeing. That our poll only targeted white respondents may explain this difference at least in part.

When we controlled for age, the number of our respondents who answered that more divides than unites Americans rose to 72.3% among those aged 18-29. While the relevant subgroups of the different age brackets were not controlled as they were for party affiliation, this spike nonetheless suggests that political polarization will continue to deepen.

III. MOVING AND BALKANIZATION

We also asked respondents whether politics had an influence on their decision to move in the past and if they think politics will probably influence their decision to move in the future. We found that 11.3% of respondents reported politics as having at least a slight influence on their decision to move within the last ten years.

This number jumped to 32.2% of respondents who reported that politics would probably have at least a slight influence on their decision to move within the next five years. However, these figures should be taken with a grain of salt as thinking about doing something and actually following through with it are two different things.

It has long been perceived that it is mostly Republicans who move for political reasons. However, 35.6% of Democrats, 31% of Independents, and 29.1% of Republicans reported that politics would probably have at least a slight influence on their decision to move within the next five years. These findings could indicate an emerging trend in which liberals will equal and perhaps even surpass conservatives in moving for political reasons. This would increase the balkanization of America, which in turn would make a national divorce both easier and more desirable.

Furthermore, we also asked what specific factors influenced respondents to move within the past ten years:

Along with what specific factors would probably influence them to move in the next five years:

Among reasons which would commonly be thought of as explicitly political, a desire for more gun control, more abortion rights, and more diversity were all at 12.7% for probably influencing Democrats to move in the future. For Republicans, a desire for less gun control was the top political influence at 5.7%.

Despite apolitical reasons being generally stronger than explicitly political reasons, a number of implicitly political reasons also played a significant role in people’s plans on moving. 13.3% of all respondents and 17% of Republicans want to move for lower taxes. 15.5% of all respondents to include even 9.7% of Democrats want to move for lower crime. 13.8% of all respondents want to move to feel more comfortable around people in their community, including 15.7% of Democrats.

Of most interest is how 5.3% of Republicans and 3.6% of Independents reported that a desire for less diversity would probably influence a future decision to move within the next ten years. This shows that a small but not insignificant number of people are willing to candidly address the root demographic causes for why they are moving, as opposed to the secondary effects of diversity, such as crime and long commutes, which are more acceptable in public discourse.

In comparison, 4.2% of Republicans reported that a desire for less diversity influenced their decision to move in the past ten years, while 5.3% of Democrats reported a desire for more diversity influenced a previous move. 12.7% of Democrats reported that a desire for more diversity will probably influence a future move. This suggests that Democrats will catch up to and probably surpass Republicans in driving balkanization through moving at least in part due to political reasons.

The Homeland Institute will repeat this poll in the future to track how the public mind evolves on these issues.

[1]https://x.com/mtgreenee/status/1627665203398688768?s=20

[2]https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1i6zpqns9b/econtoplines.pdf

[3] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-11/Axios-Ipsos%20Two%20Americas%20Index%20March%202023%20Topline%20.pdf

[4] Our margin of error is 3%, as was the YouGov and Axios polls. The YouGov and Axios polls asked respondents of all races, while our respondents were limited to non-Hispanic whites.

[5] The age cohorts were not adjusted to match population-level party ID, ideology, Biden approval, etc. However, they are still suggestive.